• What Happened: International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Thursday in an exclusive AP interview that Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of jet fuel remaining and that flight cancellations could come "soon" if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Birol called the Iran war's impact on energy "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced."
  • Why It Matters: More than 110 oil tankers and 15 LNG carriers are trapped in the Persian Gulf unable to move. Over 80 key energy assets in the region have been damaged, more than a third of them severely. Even with a peace deal, Birol warned full energy production could take up to two years to restore. If Hormuz is not open by end of May, he warned of recession in weaker economies.
  • Bottom Line: A handful of Iranian forces are holding the global economy hostage. Europe's flights could start disappearing in six weeks. The two-week ceasefire expires Tuesday. The world is watching the clock.

The head of the world's premier energy watchdog sat in his Paris office Thursday with the Eiffel Tower visible through the window behind him and delivered a warning the world needs to hear.

"In the past there was a group called 'Dire Straits,'" IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told the Associated Press. "It's a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy. And the longer it goes, the worse it will be for the economic growth and inflation around the world."

The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed since the Iran war began February 28. Birol called what has followed "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced." And on Thursday, he delivered his starkest warning yet about what comes next if it stays closed.

"In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left," he said. "If we are not able to open the Strait of Hormuz, I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel."

The warning is not theoretical. Dutch airline KLM has already announced it will cut 160 flights to and from Amsterdam's Schiphol airport next month, citing "rising kerosene costs" and saying a limited number of routes are "no longer financially viable to operate." Budget carrier easyJet said Thursday it is not currently experiencing fuel shortages but did not dispute the IEA's six-week warning. Ticket prices and add-on fees are already rising across European carriers.

Birol laid out the full scope of the catastrophe unfolding in global energy markets. Nearly 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz in peacetime. More than 110 oil-laden tankers and over 15 carriers loaded with liquefied natural gas are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf, sitting full of fuel the world desperately needs but cannot access. Brent crude has hit a fresh record near $150 a barrel. U.S. gas prices, while slightly down this week to $4.09 a gallon, are still up from around $3 when the war began.

"No country, no country is immune to this crisis," he said.

Government leaders are already warning him privately about what comes next. "Many government leaders tell me that if Hormuz is not open until the end of May, many countries, starting from the weaker economies, are going to face huge challenges," Birol said, "and this will go from the high inflation numbers to coming close to slow growth or even to recession in some cases."

Birol also pushed back hard on Iran's "toll booth" scheme, where Tehran has been charging certain ships fees to transit the strait. He called it a dangerous precedent that could spread to other critical waterways including Asia's Malacca Strait. "If we change it once, it may be difficult to get it back," he said. "I would like to see that the oil flows unconditionally from point A to point B."

Even optimistic scenarios are not very optimistic. Birol said more than 80 key energy assets in the region have been damaged during the war, with more than a third of those severely or very severely damaged. Even if a permanent peace deal is reached and the strait fully reopens, restoring pre-war energy production levels will take "gradually, gradually, up to two years."

The two-week ceasefire that paused the conflict on April 7 expires Tuesday. Both sides are considering an extension. VP Vance led the U.S. delegation at the first round of Islamabad peace talks. A second round is being set up by Pakistani mediators.

Birol said he finds it incomprehensible that the global economy is being held hostage by what he called "a couple of hundred men with guns."

Those men are holding 110 tankers in the Persian Gulf. They are draining Europe's jet fuel reserves. They are pushing the developing world toward recession. And they are doing it through a waterway that carries one-fifth of the world's energy.

The clock that matters most right now is not in Washington or Tehran or Islamabad. It is the six-week countdown on Europe's jet fuel supply.