• What Happened: CNN's own panel acknowledged that the 2028 Democratic primary is shaping up as a fragmented mess, with Newsom leading at just 19%, Harris at 18%, Buttigieg at 13%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 12%, with nobody breaking 20%.
  • Why It Matters: Political analysts note this level of fragmentation has not been seen in modern Democratic politics since 1992, with past cycles always producing a clear front-runner hovering above 25%.
  • Bottom Line: With no dominant candidate and a base fractured between progressive activists and establishment holdovers, Democrats are heading into 2028 without a clear leader or direction.

When even CNN is calling your primary a clown car, you have a problem.

The polling numbers are brutal. Gavin Newsom tops the field at 19%. Kamala Harris trails him by a single point at 18%. Pete Buttigieg sits at 13% and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulls 12%. Round up every candidate on that stage and not one of them cracks the 20% threshold. In a party that once rallied around dominant front-runners, that is a stunning collapse of political gravity.

This kind of fragmentation has not shown up in Democratic primary polling since 1992. Every cycle since then produced a candidate who pulled away early and held a commanding lead heading into the race. Barack Obama had it. Hillary Clinton had it. Joe Biden had it. What the Democrats have right now is not a primary field. It is a waiting room full of people hoping someone else blinks first.

The polling reflects something deeper than just candidate weakness. The Democratic Party has drifted so far from the political center that it no longer connects with the voters it used to take for granted. The states they control longest and most completely are exhibit A. California cannot keep its lights on, cannot keep its streets safe, cannot stop businesses from fleeing, and just got caught allowing billions in pandemic loan fraud to walk out the door unchallenged. That is the ideology these candidates are running on.

The base itself is fractured. Progressive activists want revolution. Establishment Democrats want a return to normalcy. Neither wing trusts the other and neither has produced a figure capable of uniting them.

President Trump built his coalition on a simple formula: say what you mean, mean what you say, and deliver results Americans can see in their daily lives. That formula works because voters are not complicated. They want leadership that looks like leadership.

All Democrats are offering now is a clown car with no driver.