Online prediction platform Kalshi has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding he wagered on whether he would attend the State of the Union and profited when he did not show, according to reporting from Headline USA adapted from the Associated Press. Kalshi said its Compliance Department found reasonable cause to believe Santos engaged in insider trading tied to his own plans, assessed a $71,356 penalty, and imposed the first lifetime ban in the company’s history.
Kalshi’s finding and the SOTU bets
Kalshi said Santos placed several large trades between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on markets about his attendance and then spoke publicly in ways that could move prices, including making “false or misleading statements.” The company said he was barred from trading on the outcome because he could influence it, yet turned a $17,839 profit when he did not attend. The lifetime ban, effective last Friday, blocks him from accessing the platform directly or indirectly, the outlet reported.
On the eve of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75%, according to the report. Minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he was stuck at the airport, prompting several social media users to accuse him of running a scheme. Kalshi spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said Santos’s case resulted in the company’s first permanent ban; four other new enforcement cases drew temporary bans because those users cooperated.
Santos’s response and prior federal action
An email seeking comment from Santos on Monday was not immediately returned, the report said. On X, Santos called Kalshi “an unserious company,” labeled the action “frivolous nonsense,” and wrote, “thanks for the lifetime ban from your gambling platform,” adding: “Let’s see how much longer you guys are around for.”
A month earlier, Santos agreed to pay $35,000 to settle a Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigation into the same trades, according to the report. The federal probe prompted rival platform Polymarket to cut ties with him in June. In March, Santos addressed complaints on his podcast, saying, “I guess people lost money. Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”
Other candidates penalized
Kalshi also fined and temporarily banned North Carolina congressional candidate Laurie Buckhout. The company levied a $2,589 fine and a three-year ban after Buckhout acknowledged placing bets of less than $1,000 on her own campaign, the outlet reported. “I bet on myself. Literally. It was a dumb mistake, and as soon as I learned there was an issue, I worked to make it right,” Buckhout said in a statement.
Three-year bans were also issued to Stephen Cloobeck, a timeshare executive who briefly ran for California governor and who Kalshi says bought $10,000 in contracts on his candidacy, and Ben Midgley, a businessman who briefly sought the GOP nomination for Maine governor and bet less than $1,000 on his campaign. Cloobeck could not immediately be reached for comment. Midgley said he viewed the platform as “a novelty and entertainment source,” added he was not aware candidates could not support themselves on Kalshi, and said he had no winnings and made a charity donation in line with the company’s policies.
Context on Santos
The report notes Santos had publicly discussed plans to attend the State of the Union, which came four months after Trump granted him clemency in a fraud case that led to his expulsion from the U.S. House. Santos, who previously portrayed himself as a Wall Street dealmaker, was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024; he served 84 days before Trump ordered his release. At the time, Trump called Santos a “rogue” but argued he did not deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for voting Republican.
